China is the next major market Apple seeks to conquer. That much has been made crystal clear in recent months. From visits by Tim Cook to expanding production facilities across the Asian continent, China is a vital piece of Apple’s business strategy for the rest of the decade.
As a result of Apple’s escalating Chinese aims, no shortage of leading Wall Street watchers and industry analysts are upping their estimates for how much business Apple will do in China during the coming years.
On Monday, Deutsche Bank’s Chris Whitmore published a research note titled: “iPhone is just getting started in China.” According to the analyst, Apple could sell as many as 35 million iPhones in China next year.
“In 1Q,” Whitmore says, “we estimate Apple has captured less than 15% share of China Unicom and China Telecom’s combined 3G subscriber base. Over the next few years, we expect Apple to benefit from strong 3G sub growth at these two partners while continuing its path of share gains. If Apple reaches 20-25% penetration of this subscriber base by the end of 2013, we estimate iPhone unit sales in China would approach ~25M units in 2012 and ~35M units in 2013. Any benefit from a future partnership with China Mobile would be additive to these estimates.”
